When Will I Be Released? – Maria Karaiskos KC and Guy Cecil
If you are serving a term of custody, one of your first thoughts when sentenced will be: “How much of my sentence do I actually have to serve?”
The answer isn’t always straightforward. The law has changed several times in recent years, and it now depends on things like:
- the type of offence
- the length of your sentence
- your age at the time
- whether your case is considered serious, violent, sexual, or terrorism-related
This guide breaks it down in a way that we hope makes it easier to understand.
The Basic Rule (Most People)
For many prisoners serving a fixed-term sentence:
You are usually released before the end of your sentence, and the rest is spent on licence in the community.
In 2026, the general rule is:
- Many people are now released after serving 40% of their sentence (this is sometimes called “SDS40”).
- This mainly applies to shorter sentences (under 5 years).
Example:
If you get 4 years → you might be released after about 1 year 7 months, then spend the rest on licence.
If you are eligible for Home Detention Curfew (“tagging”) then you may be released earlier.
When You Have to Serve More Time (Two-Thirds Rule)
Some prisoners must serve more time inside before release on licence.
In these cases, release usually happens after two-thirds (67%) of the sentence.
This often applies if:
- The offence is serious, violent or sexual
- The sentence is 4 years or more
- A life sentence was possible for that offence
Example:
6-year sentence → release after about 4 years
Longer Sentences (7 Years or More)
If you received 7 years or more, and the offence is serious:
You will usually serve two-thirds before automatic release.
This can apply to:
- Violent offences (like manslaughter or serious assaults)
- Serious sexual offences
Young People (Under 18 at the Time)
If you were under 18 when sentenced;
For serious offences and longer sentences (7+ years), you may still have to serve two-thirds before automatic release.
So the old idea that “young people always get out halfway” is no longer true.
Extended Sentences & “Dangerousness” Cases
Some people are given extended sentences or labelled as higher risk.
In these cases:
- You are not automatically released at two-thirds
- Instead, your case goes to the Parole Board
- They decide if it’s safe to release you
If they say no, you stay in until the end of the custodial term or you re-apply for parole.
Offenders of Particular Concern (OPC)
This includes certain serious offences (often sexual or terrorism-related).
Same idea as above:
- You are considered for release at two-thirds
- But it’s not guaranteed
- The Parole Board decides
Terrorism Offences
Rules here are stricter.
Usually:
- You must serve at least two-thirds
- Then the Parole Board decides if you can be released
For the most serious terrorism sentences:
- No early release at all
- You serve the full custodial term
Life Sentences
If you’re serving life:
You are given a minimum term (tariff)
After that, the Parole Board decides if you can be released
- There is no automatic release
- If released, you stay on licence for life
Important Things to Remember
- Release rules have changed a lot in recent years
- What applies to one person might not apply to another
- The type of offence and sentence length really matter
- Some people are released automatically, others are not
- Time spent on remand or on a qualifying curfew counts towards your release date
Why This Matters
There have been cases where even judges got the release rules wrong in court.
That shows how complicated things have become.
If you’re unsure about your release date:
- Speak to your solicitor
- Ask prison staff about your sentence calculation
- Don’t rely on what others say on the wing—rules differ case by case
Bottom Line
- Shorter sentences → often around 40% served
- Serious offences → usually two-thirds served
- Higher-risk cases → Parole Board decides
- Life / serious terrorism → no automatic early release
